Wednesday, December 08, 2010
The Black Swan
Who wants to live in a world of 90% probability
"Imagine a speck of dust next to a planet a billion times the size of earth. The speck of dust represents the odds in favour of your being born; the huge planet would be the odds against it. So stop sweating the small stuff. Don't be like the ingrate who got a castle as a present and worried about the mildew in the bathroom. Stop looking the gift horse in the mouth - remember you are a Black Swan.
Skills is essential ( from zero to upper middle class) but to go to billionaire , luck is essential to add to the skills.
Before the discovery of Australia swans were thought to be white. You cannot rule black swan because you haven't seen it.
His black swan is an event, the impact of the highly improbable. Perpectively unpredictable and retrospectively predictable.
The computer is a black swan, the rise of religion is a black swan, Harry Potter is a black swan
Illusion of control
Mother nature doesn't like leverage, mother nature doesn't like 'too big to fail'. Mother nature doesn't like debt.Debts versus spare parts. We all have two lungs, if economists had thier way it would be optimum allocation and we will have one lung. Mother nature doesn't like the ricardo concept.